null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

Net debt ~$600M CAD; Debt/EBITDA ~1.5x; 20% rate rise adds ~$12M CAD annual interest cost, manageable but compresses FCF meaningfully.

~70% fixed-rate debt limits near-term exposure; 20% rate increase on floating portion adds ~$8-12M CAD annual burden, modest impact on coverage ratios.

High intensity; OPEC+ supply decisions and Russia-Ukraine conflict drive price volatility.

Alberta pipeline egress (Enbridge mainline congestion) and U.S.-Canada border energy trade policy represent primary chokepoints for Obsidian's crude transport.

Obsidian operates almost exclusively in Canada; sovereign currency devaluation risk is negligible as revenues are CAD-denominated with no material international markets.

100% Alberta-focused upstream oil and gas producer; zero direct international revenue exposure; CAD/USD differential is primary currency risk via oil price benchmarks.

High intensity; commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Refined Petroleum Products, Uranium, Steel (equipment); geopolitical: OPEC+ supply decisions and Russia-Ukraine conflict drive price volatility.

Pipeline transportation via Enbridge represents a near-non-substitutable critical input; likely exceeds 30% of operational logistics cost with limited near-term alternatives.

Upstream oil and gas extraction/production; no material cloud infrastructure dependency; operations are field-based with minimal SaaS or cloud-hosted revenue-critical systems.

Asset-intensive commodity producer; secondary revenue from natural gas and NGL sales; cloud termination risk is operationally negligible, back-office disruption only.

Minimal API coupling risk; Obsidian uses standard oilfield operations software (Quorum, Petrel); vendor switching costs are moderate but not existential.

Low Howey Test risk; revenue model is commodity extraction and sale, not an investment contract; equity shares are standard securities already regulated under CSA.

High

Minimal GDPR/CCPA exposure; customer base is B2B commodity purchasers and institutional; no consumer personal data collection at meaningful scale.

Low antitrust risk; Obsidian is a small-cap price-taker in global oil markets with less than 1% Canadian production share; no market power concerns.

High burden; regimes: EPA, FERC, DOE, CFTC, OSHA, SEC; Accelerating emissions mandates and methane rules threaten capex economics.

~100% transactional; revenue derived from spot and short-term commodity sales of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs; no meaningful subscription or long-term fixed-price contracts.

Direct commodity sales to refiners and marketers at benchmark-linked prices (WTI, Edmonton Par); revenue is volume × realized price with hedging overlays.

Price-taker model; WTI/Edmonton Par benchmark pricing less quality/transportation differentials; stress scenario of $20/bbl WTI decline reduces revenue ~30-35%.

Zero independent pricing power; Obsidian is a pure commodity price-taker; realized price entirely market-determined minus pipeline and quality differentials.

Operating netback margin approximately 40-55% at $70-80 WTI; highly sensitive to oil price, with breakeven around $40-45 WTI all-in.

No free-rider leakage problem; commodity sold at market clearing prices; customer concentration risk exists but churn is managed via multi-buyer marketing agreements.

Revenue growth is sublinear to headcount; production increases via capital deployment to wells, not proportional staff additions; lean ~200-300 employee base.

Marginal cost of growth is capital-intensive (drilling/completion ~$3-5M/well) but not headcount-linear; incremental production requires capital, not proportional labor scaling.

Not applicable; Obsidian operates no franchise network.

At 10x scale, CAC remains near-zero (commodity market); unit economics degrade via supply-demand impact on differentials and pipeline constraints, not marketing costs.

No network effects present; oil and gas production is a commodity business with zero demand-side economies of scale or user network dynamics.

AI displacement risk is low in near term; field operations, drilling, and reservoir management have AI optimization potential but physical asset intensity limits full displacement.

Tier 3 recession sensitivity; oil demand is cyclical and discretionary industrial demand falls in recessions; Obsidian's revenue highly correlated with macro cycles.

Large refiners and commodity traders (e.g., Suncor, Imperial Oil, third-party marketers) purchasing crude oil at index-linked prices.

Natural gas and NGL purchasers including utilities and midstream processors; secondary revenue stream representing ~20-25% of total production value.

["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations", "53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations"]

0.33 (HIL — ~33% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)

Capital is primarily maintenance and growth drilling (~$150-200M CAD annually); allocation increasingly toward Cardium and Viking light oil plays, not legacy heavy oil reallocation.

0001334388

OBE