Warrior Met Coal Inc.
c7ee5ba5-4d67-420b-9d21-993a82b29162
PRODUCTION_VERIFIED schema v3.0.0 Inferred last heartbeat: 2026-07-20T21:28:17.058120+00:00

Business Model Classification Tokens

contract_cycle_length
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
enterprise_sales_motion
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
procurement_complexity
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
vendor_lock_coefficient
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
consumption_unit_definition
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
usage_billing_granularity
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
overage_penalty_structure
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
minimum_commitment_floor
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
metered_margin_profile
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run

Business Model Archetype Classification

University of St. Gallen — 55 Business Model Navigator (Gassmann et al.)

SG-006 Cash Machine VALUE High
Direct: debt_leverage_profile=0.07x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative). Corroborated: revenue_model_type=~100% transactional spot/short-term contract coal sales; virtually zero recurring subscription or multi-year fixed-price revenue
SG-036
Product to Capability
WHAT High
SG-049
Subscription
VALUE High

Hybrid Combination

Cash Machine (SG-006) VALUE provides the core structure, combined with Product to Capability (SG-036) + Subscription (SG-049) to form the complete business model fingerprint.

55 Archetypes Evaluated High: 3 Medium: 15 Registry: schemas/sg55_archetype_registry.yaml

Knowledge Graph — All Sections

debt_leverage_profile
0.07x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative)
High
SEC-XBRL
interest_rate_sensitivity
Low direct sensitivity; ~$350M term loan at fixed/hedged rates, but higher rates compress steel mill capex, reducing met coal demand indirectly
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geopolitical_supply_exposure
High intensity; OPEC+ supply decisions and Russia-Ukraine conflict drive price volatility.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
supply_chain_dependency
Port of Mobile (Alabama export bottleneck) and Chinese steel mill import policy shifts represent top two geopolitical chokepoints
Inferred
Agent_Inference
international_expansion_readiness
Revenues priced in USD; steel mill customers in Brazil, India, Europe bear local currency devaluation risk, insulating Warrior's realized revenue
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geographic_footprint
Two underground mines in Brookwood, Alabama; ~75% of production exported to seaborne met coal markets in Europe, Brazil, and Asia
Inferred
Agent_Inference
commodity_exposure_profile
High intensity; commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Refined Petroleum Products, Uranium, Steel (equipment); geopolitical: OPEC+ supply decisions and Russia-Ukraine conflict drive price volatility.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
vendor_lock_dependency_score
BNSF/CSX rail haulage and Port of Mobile export terminal represent near-irreplaceable logistics inputs exceeding 30% of cash operating cost
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_primary
Physical mining and commodity sales; zero cloud infrastructure dependency—account termination has negligible operational impact
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_secondary
Spot and short-term contract seaborne metallurgical coal sales; no meaningful SaaS or platform revenue stream
Inferred
Agent_Inference
switching_cost_profile
No API coupling; operational systems are on-premise SCADA/mine management software with low vendor lock-in risk
Inferred
Agent_Inference
howey_test_risk_index
Fails Howey Test; primary revenue is commodity coal sales—no investment contract, profit expectation from third-party effort, or token structure
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_burden_tier
High
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
data_sovereignty_risk
Minimal GDPR/CCPA exposure; no consumer data collected, B2B commodity seller with limited personal data processing obligations
Inferred
Agent_Inference
antitrust_exposure_flag
Low; U.S. met coal market is fragmented, Warrior holds ~5-7% of seaborne HCC supply, no pricing dominance trigger
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_exposure_profile
High burden; regimes: EPA, FERC, DOE, CFTC, OSHA, SEC; Accelerating emissions mandates and methane rules threaten capex economics.
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
revenue_model_type
~100% transactional spot/short-term contract coal sales; virtually zero recurring subscription or multi-year fixed-price revenue
Inferred
Agent_Inference
monetization_vector
Per-ton commodity sales priced against benchmark HCC indices (PLV spot); revenue entirely volume and price-driven
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_architecture
Benchmark-linked pricing (Platts PLV HCC index); at $150/ton stress scenario, EBITDA turns negative given ~$140-160/ton cash cost base
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_power_rating
Low standalone pricing power; price-taker on seaborne HCC index, partially offset by premium low-vol product commanding ~5-10% above benchmark
Inferred
Agent_Inference
target_gross_margin_bracket
0.7% Gross Margin (Thin (<20%))
High
SEC-XBRL
churn_vulnerability_index
No free-rider risk; commodity product, but customer concentration in ~15 steel mills creates churn risk if any large mill idles capacity
Inferred
Agent_Inference
headcount_cost_structure
Revenue growth is volume-linear not headcount-sublinear; doubling output requires proportional mining labor, equipment, and shift expansion
Inferred
Agent_Inference
marginal_cost_of_growth
High marginal cost of growth; new longwall panels and equipment require $150-300M+ capex per incremental ~3-4Mt annual capacity
Inferred
Agent_Inference
franchise_compliance_risk
Not applicable; not a franchise business model
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_acquisition_metric
At 10x scale (~60Mt), Warrior would represent ~30% of seaborne HCC market—physically impossible; current 6Mt scale is near operational ceiling
Inferred
Agent_Inference
network_effect_present
No network effects; commodity mining business with zero user-base compounding or platform dynamics
Inferred
Agent_Inference
asset_efficiency_ratio
2.0% Return on Assets (Excellent)
High
SEC-XBRL
recession_resistance_tier
Tier 4 (highly cyclical); met coal demand collapses with steel output during recessions—revenue fell ~40% in 2015-2016 downcycle
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_primary
Integrated blast-furnace steel mills globally; top 5 customers likely represent 50-60% of revenue based on typical met coal offtake patterns
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_secondary
European and Brazilian steel producers (ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp, CSN) as secondary segment alongside Asian mills
Inferred
Agent_Inference
characteristic_occupations
["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations", "53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations"]
High
SOC-2018/GICS-overlay
agent_automatable_labor_share
0.33 (HIL — ~33% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)
Medium
SOC-2018 + agentic-exposure-v1
capital_expenditure_profile
15.7% CapEx / Revenue (High-CapEx Infrastructure)
High
SEC-XBRL
sec_cik
0001691303
High
SEC-EDGAR
ticker
HCC
High
SEC-EDGAR

Business Model Components

Core Space

> *Pending Turn 2 — Business Model Type Agent population.*

Interaction Modes

> *Pending Turn 2 — Business Model Type Agent population.*

Product Matrix

> *Pending Turn 2 — Business Model Type Agent population.*

Historical Evolution Log

Live Operational Signals

Signal DateSignal TypeSummary
Source

Evaluation Gate — Persona Stress Tests

SKILL_BUFFETT_VAL_03PASS2026-07-20no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_LEGAL_SEC_01PASS2026-07-20no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_SHORT_BEAR_01PASS2026-07-20no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_MACRO_STRAT_01PASS2026-07-20no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_OPS_PARTNER_01PASS2026-07-20no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions

Live Status

No Live Status block found.