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0.12x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative)

Moderate; agilon carries ~$300M debt, rising 200bps adds ~$6M annual interest cost, manageable but pressures already thin margins

Low intensity; China and India supply >60% of global API inputs, creating concentration risk.

Not applicable; agilon is a healthcare services/technology company with no meaningful physical goods supply chain geopolitical chokepoints

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Operates exclusively in US markets; zero sovereign currency devaluation exposure in international markets

Low intensity; commodities: Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, Rare Earth Elements, Natural Gas (energy), Plastics/Resins, Ethanol, Packaging Materials; geopolitical: China and India supply >60% of global API inputs, creating concentration risk.

High dependency on CMS Medicare Advantage reimbursement frameworks; single-payer concentration risk with MA plans representing ~90% of revenue

Cloud disruption would impair care coordination platform and analytics tools; ~2-3 month migration risk causing operational degradation for physician partners

Secondary risk: physician partner data continuity and claims processing workflows disrupted, potentially breaching network SLAs

High API coupling to EHR systems (Epic, Athena); replacing integrations would cost physician partners $500K-$2M and 12-18 months of renegotiation

Low Howey risk; revenue model is capitated healthcare services, clearly not a securities offering or investment contract

Very High

CCPA exposure moderate as California operations scale; HIPAA governs primarily; no GDPR exposure given US-only operations

Low-moderate; physician network aggregation could attract scrutiny but market share remains sub-5% nationally in Medicare Advantage

Very High burden; regimes: FDA, CMS, HHS, HIPAA, EMA, OIG; Drug pricing legislation and approval delays directly compress revenue visibility.

~95% recurring via multi-year capitated contracts with Medicare Advantage plans; minimal transactional revenue

Per-member-per-month capitated payments from Medicare Advantage insurers, risk-adjusted to patient acuity and outcomes performance

Capitated rates set by CMS benchmarks and MA plan negotiations; limited direct pricing power, vulnerable to CMS rate cuts of 2-4% annually

Low-moderate; pricing largely dictated by CMS MA benchmarks and insurer contract terms, not market-driven negotiation

Medical margin (gross margin proxy) ~3-5%; total gross margin negative in growth phase; targeting 10-15% medical margin at scale

Low free-rider risk; physician partners contractually locked into global capitation model with agilon bearing downside risk

Sublinear growth model; technology platform and risk infrastructure scale across new physician partners without proportional headcount increase

Marginal cost of adding physician partners declining; key variable cost is care management staff, roughly 60-70% sublinear to revenue growth

Not a franchise model; physician partnership agreements carry compliance drift risk around coding accuracy and quality metric performance

At 10x scale (~$12B revenue), CAC per physician partner likely falls 40-50% but medical loss ratio management becomes critical operational constraint

Weak direct network effects; scale improves data analytics and benchmarking quality but physician partners don't directly benefit from each other's participation

-31.8% Return on Assets (Negative equity)

High recession resistance; Medicare-funded, serving elderly population with inelastic demand for primary and preventive care services

Primary care physicians and physician groups converting from fee-for-service to global capitation risk model under agilon's platform

Medicare Advantage health plans (UnitedHealth, Humana, CVS/Aetna) as payer partners; top 3 insurers represent estimated 70%+ of premium revenue

["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations", "21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations", "31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "51-0000 Production Occupations"]

0.32 (HIL — ~32% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)

0.2% CapEx / Revenue (Low-CapEx Asset-Light)

0001831097

AGL