Niagen Bioscience, Inc.
024f303c5e4247039b2591dc70958144
PRODUCTION_VERIFIED schema v3.0.0 Inferred last heartbeat: 2026-07-23T17:39:35.227564+00:00

Business Model Classification Tokens

contract_cycle_length
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
enterprise_sales_motion
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
procurement_complexity
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
vendor_lock_coefficient
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
consumer_acquisition_channel
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
brand_loyalty_index
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
impulse_vs_considered_purchase
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
retail_distribution_reach
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
consumption_unit_definition
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
usage_billing_granularity
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
overage_penalty_structure
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
minimum_commitment_floor
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
metered_margin_profile
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
bundle_discount_depth
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
cross_sell_attach_rate
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
bundle_churn_vs_single_churn
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
bundle_margin_blended
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run
upsell_pathway_architecture
null
Inferred
Pending — BM Dev Shop classification run

Business Model Archetype Classification

University of St. Gallen — 55 Business Model Navigator (Gassmann et al.)

SG-049 Subscription VALUE High
Direct: monetization_vector contains [Direct-to-consumer supplement sales with auto-ship subscription overlay; secondary retail/wholesale channel; LTV dependent on repeat purchase frequency of health-conscious consumers]; revenue_model_type=Estimated 20-35% recurring via subscription auto-ship programs; 65-80% transactional single-purchase DTC and retail; recurring ratio below SaaS benchmark
SG-009
Customer Loyalty
WHO High
SG-014
Flat Rate
VALUE High
SG-037
Product as a Service
VALUE High
SG-035
Premium
WHO High
SG-006
Cash Machine
VALUE High
SG-012
E-commerce
HOW High

Hybrid Combination

Subscription (SG-049) VALUE provides the core structure, combined with Customer Loyalty (SG-009) + Flat Rate (SG-014) + Product as a Service (SG-037) to form the complete business model fingerprint.

55 Archetypes Evaluated High: 10 Medium: 11 Registry: schemas/sg55_archetype_registry.yaml

Knowledge Graph — All Sections

debt_leverage_profile
0.07x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative)
High
SEC-XBRL
interest_rate_sensitivity
Early-stage biotech with minimal debt; 200bps rate rise increases cost of any convertible notes but primary risk is equity dilution from higher discount rates on future cash flows
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geopolitical_supply_exposure
Low intensity; China and India supply >60% of global API inputs, creating concentration risk.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
supply_chain_dependency
Chinese API manufacturing (NMN/NAD+ precursor synthesis) and Indian bulk pharmaceutical excipient sourcing represent top two geopolitical chokepoints
Inferred
Agent_Inference
international_expansion_readiness
Limited documented international revenue; USD-denominated operations dominate; nascent exposure to CAD and AUD in supplement export markets with minimal hedging infrastructure
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geographic_footprint
Primarily US-based operations; modest e-commerce exports to Canada and Australia create low-level CAD/AUD devaluation exposure; no material EM currency risk identified
Inferred
Agent_Inference
commodity_exposure_profile
Low intensity; commodities: Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, Rare Earth Elements, Natural Gas (energy), Plastics/Resins, Ethanol, Packaging Materials; geopolitical: China and India supply >60% of global API inputs, creating concentration risk.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
vendor_lock_dependency_score
Single-source NMN raw material suppliers in China likely represent >30% of COGS; no publicly disclosed multi-supplier redundancy strategy creating high substitution risk
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_primary
Cloud infrastructure termination would disrupt e-commerce, DTC order management, and CRM within 30 days; recovery timeline estimated 60-90 days to migrate to alternate provider
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_secondary
Secondary impact includes loss of data analytics pipeline for customer segmentation and marketing automation, degrading CAC efficiency for 3-6 months post-migration
Inferred
Agent_Inference
switching_cost_profile
Low API coupling risk; relies on standard Shopify/WooCommerce e-commerce APIs and Stripe payments — all substitutable within 30-60 days with moderate reintegration cost
Inferred
Agent_Inference
howey_test_risk_index
Primary revenue from nutraceutical product sales; fails Howey Test investment-of-money-in-common-enterprise prong — negligible securities law reclassification risk; score ~1/10
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_burden_tier
Very High
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
data_sovereignty_risk
DTC supplement sales collect PII; CCPA compliance required for California customers; GDPR exposure minimal given limited EU sales; moderate compliance gap risk for small-cap operation
Inferred
Agent_Inference
antitrust_exposure_flag
Niche NAD+ supplement market with numerous competitors (Tru Niagen, Elysium, etc.); no dominant market position; antitrust exposure rated low
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_exposure_profile
Very High burden; regimes: FDA, CMS, HHS, HIPAA, EMA, OIG; Drug pricing legislation and approval delays directly compress revenue visibility.
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
revenue_model_type
Estimated 20-35% recurring via subscription auto-ship programs; 65-80% transactional single-purchase DTC and retail; recurring ratio below SaaS benchmark
Inferred
Agent_Inference
monetization_vector
Direct-to-consumer supplement sales with auto-ship subscription overlay; secondary retail/wholesale channel; LTV dependent on repeat purchase frequency of health-conscious consumers
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_architecture
Premium-positioned nutraceutical at $40-80/month; price elasticity stress test suggests 15-20% volume loss at 25% price increase given commodity competitor alternatives
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_power_rating
Moderate; brand differentiation on NAD+ science narrative provides limited premium protection but generic NMN commoditization caps long-term pricing power; rated 5/10
Inferred
Agent_Inference
target_gross_margin_bracket
64.3% Gross Margin (Premium (>60%))
High
SEC-XBRL
churn_vulnerability_index
Free-rider leakage low in physical supplement model; primary churn risk is subscription cancellation after initial trial — estimated 40-55% annual subscriber churn typical for supplement category
Inferred
Agent_Inference
headcount_cost_structure
Revenue growth is largely sublinear to headcount; fulfillment scales via 3PL partners; doubling revenue requires ~30-40% headcount increase, not 100%, due to outsourced logistics
Inferred
Agent_Inference
marginal_cost_of_growth
Marginal cost of growth dominated by COGS (raw materials, packaging) and CAC (digital advertising); gross margin expansion possible at scale if API sourcing diversified
Inferred
Agent_Inference
franchise_compliance_risk
null
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_acquisition_metric
At 10x scale, CAC likely compresses via brand leverage and SEO maturity but Meta/Google ad CPMs inflate; LTV:CAC ratio sustainability requires subscription retention improvement to >18 months
Inferred
Agent_Inference
network_effect_present
No meaningful network effects; supplement consumption is individual; community/referral programs provide weak social graph stickiness; network effect durability rated very low
Inferred
Agent_Inference
asset_efficiency_ratio
17.1% Return on Assets (Excellent)
High
SEC-XBRL
recession_resistance_tier
Tier 3 — discretionary wellness supplement; historically 15-25% revenue decline in consumer staples downturns; not recession-resistant but loyal health-conscious demographic provides partial buffer
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_primary
Health-conscious adults 35-65 pursuing longevity and energy optimization; DTC channel concentration risk — top 10% of subscribers likely represent 40%+ of recurring revenue
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_secondary
Retail pharmacy and health food store wholesale buyers (secondary channel); concentration risk if major retail partner (e.g., Whole Foods, CVS) delists or reduces shelf allocation
Inferred
Agent_Inference
characteristic_occupations
["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations", "21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations", "31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "51-0000 Production Occupations"]
High
SOC-2018/GICS-overlay
agent_automatable_labor_share
0.32 (HIL — ~32% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)
Medium
SOC-2018 + agentic-exposure-v1
capital_expenditure_profile
0.6% CapEx / Revenue (Low-CapEx Asset-Light)
High
SEC-XBRL
sec_cik
0001386570
High
SEC-EDGAR
ticker
NAGE
High
SEC-EDGAR

Business Model Components

Core Space

> *Pending Turn 2 — Business Model Type Agent population.*

Interaction Modes

> *Pending Turn 2 — Business Model Type Agent population.*

Product Matrix

> *Pending Turn 2 — Business Model Type Agent population.*

Historical Evolution Log

Live Operational Signals

Signal DateSignal TypeSummary
Source

Evaluation Gate — Persona Stress Tests

SKILL_BUFFETT_VAL_03PASS2026-07-23no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_LEGAL_SEC_01PASS2026-07-23no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_SHORT_BEAR_01PASS2026-07-23no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_MACRO_STRAT_01PASS2026-07-23no unmet atoms among this persona's authored questions
SKILL_OPS_PARTNER_01FAIL2026-07-231 authored question(s) unanswerable — e.g. QBANK_OPS_002 nee

Live Status

No Live Status block found.