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0.29x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative)

Low direct debt sensitivity; TScan is pre-revenue biotech funded by equity, minimal debt, but rising rates increase equity dilution risk and burn runway pressure

Low intensity; China and India supply >60% of global API inputs, creating concentration risk.

1) Oligopoly peptide/antigen synthesis suppliers (Eurofins, GenScript); 2) Specialized GMP cell therapy manufacturing reagents concentrated in US/EU

Effectively zero international revenue; clinical-stage US-focused company, no meaningful sovereign currency devaluation exposure currently

Operations concentrated in Cambridge, MA; no international revenue markets; currency devaluation exposure is negligible at current stage

Low intensity; commodities: Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, Rare Earth Elements, Natural Gas (energy), Plastics/Resins, Ethanol, Packaging Materials; geopolitical: China and India supply >60% of global API inputs, creating concentration risk.

High lock-in risk; proprietary TScan platform depends on specialized HLA-peptide library synthesis vendors and potential sole-source GMP manufacturing partners

Clinical-stage biotech; cloud disruption would impair R&D informatics and genomic data pipelines but not directly halt wet-lab or clinical operations

Secondary risk: loss of cloud-hosted bioinformatics platforms (e.g., AWS for genomics) would delay TCR discovery timelines by 3-6 months minimum

Moderate API coupling risk; proprietary TScan-TRACE platform integrates custom genomic databases, switching bioinformatics vendors requires significant re-validation effort

Not applicable; revenue model is licensing/milestone-based biopharma, not a securities offering; Howey Test risk is negligible

Very High

Low-moderate; genomic patient data from clinical trials triggers GDPR if EU sites enrolled; CCPA exposure minimal given no consumer-facing product

Low antitrust risk; early-stage niche TCR oncology platform, no dominant market position, no pricing power in commercial markets yet

Very High burden; regimes: FDA, CMS, HHS, HIPAA, EMA, OIG; Drug pricing legislation and approval delays directly compress revenue visibility.

~100% transactional/milestone-based; collaboration agreements (e.g., Bristol-Myers Squibb) generate upfront payments and contingent milestones, no recurring subscription revenue

Biopharmaceutical collaboration milestones, upfront licensing fees, and eventual royalties on approved TCR-T cell therapies

Milestone-gated collaboration model; pricing determined by negotiated partnership terms, not market-facing price lists; vulnerable to partner renegotiation at each stage gate

Low near-term; pre-commercial stage means pricing power is entirely dependent on competitive differentiation of TScan-TRACE platform in partnership negotiations

Projected 80-90% gross margin on licensing/royalty revenues if commercialized; currently negative gross margin due to R&D spend exceeding collaboration revenues

Low free-rider risk; proprietary platform IP is protected; academic researchers cannot replicate TScan-TRACE without licensing, limiting leakage

Headcount-linear growth model; TCR discovery and cell therapy development require proportional scientific staff increases; limited automation scalability at current stage

High marginal cost; doubling pipeline programs requires near-doubling of R&D headcount and lab infrastructure; sublinear scaling not achievable pre-commercialization

Not applicable; TScan operates no franchise network

At 10x scale, CAC model shifts to large pharma BD partnerships; cost per deal likely $2-5M in BD overhead against potential $50-500M partnership value

Weak network effects; larger HLA-peptide antigen library improves platform accuracy (data network effect) but does not create user-to-user network dynamics

AI displacement risk is moderate; AI-driven TCR discovery platforms (e.g., Immunocore, Neogene) could commoditize TScan-TRACE's core differentiation within 5 years

Moderate resilience; large pharma partnership funding insulates near-term, but recession reduces pharma BD budgets and delays new partnership signings

Large pharmaceutical/biotechnology companies seeking TCR-T cell therapy platform partnerships; Bristol-Myers Squibb was key anchor partner

Academic/government grants as secondary non-dilutive funding; concentration risk is high given BMS partnership represented majority of collaboration revenue

["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations", "21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations", "31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "51-0000 Production Occupations"]

0.32 (HIL — ~32% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)

42.7% CapEx / Revenue (High-CapEx Infrastructure)

0001783328

TCRX