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0.22x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative)

High sensitivity; Castellum carries significant debt tied to acquisitions, and a 200bps rate rise would increase annual interest expense by an estimated 15-25%, pressuring thin margins

Medium intensity; US-China trade tariffs on metals and components disrupt supply chains.

U.S. federal contracting bureaucracy and cleared-personnel talent pipeline; geopolitical chokepoints are DoD budget authorization and ITAR-restricted technology export controls

Minimal international revenue exposure; Castellum operates almost exclusively within U.S. federal government contracts, making sovereign currency devaluation risk effectively negligible

Predominantly U.S.-domestic; operations concentrated in DMV (DC-Maryland-Virginia) corridor supporting federal agencies; currency devaluation risk near-zero given USD-denominated contracts

Medium intensity; commodities: Steel, Aluminum, Copper, Crude Oil (fuel), Rare Earth Elements, Plastics/Resins; geopolitical: US-China trade tariffs on metals and components disrupt supply chains.

Moderate; dependence on cleared-facility leases and government-mandated software platforms (e.g., specific DoD IT systems) represents non-substitutable operational inputs

Cloud infrastructure termination would be disruptive but not existential; Castellum's core value is cleared human capital and program management, not cloud-native SaaS delivery

Government IT services and cybersecurity consulting; secondary revenue from product resale and managed security services under federal task orders

Low API coupling risk; Castellum delivers professional services and cybersecurity solutions, not deeply integrated software APIs, limiting third-party API dependency

Low Howey Test risk; revenue derived from government service contracts, not investment schemes; no expectation-of-profit-from-others structure present

Medium

Moderate CCPA exposure for employee data; GDPR exposure minimal given U.S.-only operations; primary risk is FISMA/CMMC federal compliance, not civilian data privacy regimes

Low antitrust risk; operates in highly fragmented federal IT services market dominated by large primes (Booz Allen, SAIC, Leidos); Castellum is a small-cap participant

Medium burden; regimes: FAA, DOT, OSHA, EPA, ITAR, FTC; Export controls and defense procurement rules create contract concentration risk.

Estimated 80-90% recurring via multi-year government task orders and IDIQ contracts; transactional product resale represents remaining 10-20%

Labor-hour billing and cost-plus contract structures under federal IDIQ and GWAC vehicles; supplemented by fixed-price task orders and product resale

Cost-plus and fixed-price government contract pricing; limited pricing power as rates are constrained by FAR regulations and competitive bidding processes

Low; federal acquisition regulations cap profit margins and mandate competitive pricing; indirect rate structures limit unilateral price increases

36.6% Gross Margin (Moderate (20-40%))

Low free-rider risk; government contracts require formal awards; churn risk tied to contract recompete cycles, typically every 3-5 years with incumbent advantage

Revenue growth is headcount-linear; professional services model requires proportional hiring of cleared personnel to scale, limiting operating leverage

High marginal cost; each new contract requires cleared FTEs, facility costs, and compliance overhead; marginal cost of revenue is approximately 75-85 cents per dollar

Not applicable; Castellum does not operate a franchise model

At 10x scale, CAC economics worsen due to cleared-personnel scarcity; customer acquisition depends on BD investment and teaming relationships, not scalable digital channels

Weak network effects; past contract performance and security clearance portfolios create mild incumbent advantage but no true demand-side network effects

-5.2% Return on Assets (Negative equity)

Tier 2 recession-resistant; U.S. federal defense and cybersecurity spending is largely non-discretionary, though continuing resolutions and sequestration pose periodic risk

U.S. federal government defense and intelligence agencies (DoD, DHS, IC community); high concentration risk with government representing ~95% of revenue

Civilian federal agencies (e.g., DHS components, civilian IT modernization programs); limited commercial or state/local government exposure

["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "33-0000 Protective Service Occupations", "37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations", "51-0000 Production Occupations", "53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations"]

0.3 (HIL — ~30% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)

0.3% CapEx / Revenue (Low-CapEx Asset-Light)

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CTM