debt_leverage_profile
0.30x Total Debt / Equity (Conservative)
High
SEC-XBRL
interest_rate_sensitivity
A 20bps rate rise adds ~$15-20M annual interest expense given ~$4B total debt; floating-rate exposure on revolving credit facility is primary risk vector.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geopolitical_supply_exposure
Medium intensity; US-China trade tariffs on metals and components disrupt supply chains.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
supply_chain_dependency
US-Mexico border crossings (cross-border freight) and Gulf Coast port congestion are top-two chokepoints affecting intermodal and drayage operations.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
international_expansion_readiness
Minimal sovereign currency risk; ~95% of revenue is USD-denominated domestic US operations; Mexican peso exposure on cross-border lanes is limited sub-5%.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geographic_footprint
Predominantly US-domestic (~95%); modest Mexico cross-border exposure via peso-denominated costs; negligible Canadian revenue; currency devaluation impact is low-single-digit millions.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
commodity_exposure_profile
Medium intensity; commodities: Steel, Aluminum, Copper, Crude Oil (fuel), Rare Earth Elements, Plastics/Resins; geopolitical: US-China trade tariffs on metals and components disrupt supply chains.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
vendor_lock_dependency_score
Truck OEMs (Freightliner, Kenworth) and diesel fuel suppliers are critical but substitutable; no single vendor exceeds 30% of input costs; no non-substitutable API dependency.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_primary
Asset-heavy trucking and logistics; cloud infrastructure termination would disrupt TMS/dispatch systems but not core physical freight operations; recovery within 60-90 days feasible.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_secondary
Logistics brokerage and intermodal are secondary; cloud dependency higher here for load-matching algorithms; disruption would temporarily impair brokerage margin but not destroy capacity.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
switching_cost_profile
Low API coupling risk; proprietary TMS integrations with shippers create moderate switching costs but no dominant third-party API represents an existential dependency.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
howey_test_risk_index
Fails Howey Test; revenue model is fee-for-service freight transportation, not an investment contract; near-zero securities classification risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_burden_tier
Medium
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
data_sovereignty_risk
Low GDPR exposure given domestic US focus; CCPA compliance required for California driver/customer data; estimated compliance cost under $5M annually; no material breach risk flagged.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
antitrust_exposure_flag
Moderate; post-Knight-Swift merger scrutiny ongoing; trucking sector consolidation watched by DOJ; pricing coordination allegations in truckload sector present tail risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_exposure_profile
Medium burden; regimes: FAA, DOT, OSHA, EPA, ITAR, FTC; Export controls and defense procurement rules create contract concentration risk.
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
revenue_model_type
~70-75% transactional spot and contract freight; ~25-30% quasi-recurring via multi-year dedicated and intermodal contracts; low true subscription revenue.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
monetization_vector
Primary vector is per-mile or per-load freight rate; secondary vectors include fuel surcharges, logistics brokerage fees, and dedicated contract services.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_architecture
Rate-per-mile model exposed to spot market cyclicality; contract freight provides partial buffer; fuel surcharge passthrough mitigates ~60-70% of diesel cost volatility.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_power_rating
Moderate; capacity tightening enables rate increases but shipper pushback limits sustained pricing power; 2023-2024 freight recession compressed rates 15-20% from peak.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
target_gross_margin_bracket
Trucking gross margin ~15-18%; brokerage ~10-12% net revenue margin; consolidated adjusted operating ratio targets 85-88 OR implying ~12-15% operating margin.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
churn_vulnerability_index
No meaningful free-rider leakage; service is rivalrous and excludable; customer churn risk moderate as shippers diversify carrier bases during soft freight markets.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
headcount_cost_structure
Revenue growth is near-headcount-linear for asset-based trucking (more drivers, more trucks); brokerage and tech-enabled logistics segments show sublinear scaling potential.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
marginal_cost_of_growth
Marginal cost of growth remains high in asset trucking (~$150-200K per incremental tractor including driver); brokerage marginal cost substantially lower at ~$50-80K per incremental load rep.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
franchise_compliance_risk
Not a franchise model; dedicated and owner-operator network compliance risk exists but managed via DOT/FMCSA regulatory framework; non-franchise structure limits drift risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_acquisition_metric
At 10x scale, CAC economics deteriorate as addressable shipper pool narrows; current CAC estimated $5-15K per enterprise shipper; retention economics dominate at scale.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
network_effect_present
Weak direct network effects; scale provides lane density advantages and load-matching efficiency but not true Metcalfe-style network effects; durability is operational not structural.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
asset_efficiency_ratio
0.8% Return on Assets (Excellent)
High
SEC-XBRL
recession_resistance_tier
Tier 3 cyclical; freight volumes and rates compress sharply in recessions (2023 freight recession showed 20-25% rate declines); limited defensive characteristics.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_primary
Large enterprise shippers (retail, e-commerce, manufacturing, food/beverage); top-10 customers estimated 20-25% of revenue; moderate concentration risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_secondary
Mid-market shippers and SMBs served via brokerage platform; more fragmented, lower concentration risk but higher churn and spot-rate exposure.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
characteristic_occupations
["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "33-0000 Protective Service Occupations", "37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations", "51-0000 Production Occupations", "53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations"]
High
SOC-2018/GICS-overlay
agent_automatable_labor_share
0.3 (HIL — ~30% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)
Medium
SOC-2018 + agentic-exposure-v1
capital_expenditure_profile
Capital actively reallocating toward technology (TMS, driver apps, autonomous pilot programs) and fleet modernization; legacy diesel fleet replacement ongoing; growth capex ~$1.5-2B annually.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
sec_cik
0001492691
High
SEC-EDGAR
ticker
KNX
High
SEC-EDGAR