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-0.10x Total Debt / Equity (Negative equity)

High sensitivity; OriginClear carries heavy convertible note debt at variable/high rates—20bps shift materially increases already unsustainable interest burden on ~$5M+ note portfolio

Medium intensity; US-China trade tariffs on metals and components disrupt supply chains.

Membrane filtration components (China-dominated manufacturing) and specialty electrocoagulation electrode materials (limited North American suppliers) are top two chokepoints

Minimal international revenue; company is essentially US-domestic, so sovereign currency devaluation exposure is negligible—near-zero forex risk currently

Operations concentrated in US (California/Texas); negligible international revenue presence means sovereign currency devaluation risk is effectively null across all markets

Medium intensity; commodities: Steel, Aluminum, Copper, Crude Oil (fuel), Rare Earth Elements, Plastics/Resins; geopolitical: US-China trade tariffs on metals and components disrupt supply chains.

Moderate; proprietary electrocoagulation cell components sourced from limited suppliers likely represent >30% of hardware input cost with limited short-term substitutes

Minimal cloud infrastructure dependency; OriginClear's core product is physical water treatment hardware/IP—cloud termination would disrupt admin/CRM but not core operations

Secondary digital operations (investor relations portal, token platform) would face disruption but represent non-core functions; 30-day migration is feasible with moderate effort

Low API coupling risk; company operates primarily in physical hardware and IP licensing with minimal third-party API dependencies in core product delivery

High Howey risk; Water On Demand tokens and OriginClear token structures involve investment of money in common enterprise with expectation of profit—likely meets all four prongs

Medium

Low GDPR/CCPA exposure; company collects minimal consumer PII, primarily B2B industrial water treatment clients and investor data—compliance burden is modest

Negligible antitrust risk; OriginClear is a micro-cap niche water treatment company with de minimis market share in fragmented $700B+ global water industry

Medium burden; regimes: FAA, DOT, OSHA, EPA, ITAR, FTC; Export controls and defense procurement rules create contract concentration risk.

Predominantly transactional (~85%+ of revenue from equipment sales/one-time contracts); recurring revenue via Water On Demand model is nascent and sub-15% of total

Primary monetization via equipment/system sales and IP licensing; secondary emerging vector is usage-based Water On Demand lease/service model targeting SME industrial clients

Cost-plus hardware pricing with limited defensibility; Water On Demand per-gallon pricing is innovative but unproven at scale—vulnerable to municipal pricing competition

Weak; 3/10 pricing power—commodity-adjacent water treatment market with strong municipal and established industrial competitors limits premium pricing ability

23.8% Gross Margin (Moderate (20-40%))

Low free-rider risk given hardware/service model; however, Water On Demand faces churn risk if SME clients revert to municipal water or larger competitors offer better terms

Revenue growth is largely headcount-linear given custom engineering/installation requirements per project; doubling revenue likely requires ~70-80% headcount increase

High marginal cost of growth; each new Water On Demand deployment requires capital equipment ($50K-$500K), installation labor, and ongoing maintenance—not scalable software economics

Not applicable; OriginClear does not operate a franchise model

Unit economics remain negative at current scale; at 10x scale, Water On Demand recurring revenue could approach breakeven if CAC (~$25K-$50K estimated) is amortized over 5+ year contracts

No meaningful network effects; water treatment is a physical infrastructure business—each installation is independent with no cross-customer value creation mechanism

-49.5% Return on Assets (Negative equity)

Tier 3 (recession vulnerable); discretionary industrial capex spending drives revenue—SME customers defer water treatment upgrades during downturns, citing budget constraints

Primary segment: small-to-mid industrial/commercial facilities (food & beverage, cannabis, car wash) seeking decentralized water treatment; high concentration risk with few active clients

Secondary segment: municipal and agricultural water operators for technology licensing; extremely limited current penetration with near-total revenue concentration in handful of accounts

["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "33-0000 Protective Service Occupations", "37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations", "51-0000 Production Occupations", "53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations"]

0.3 (HIL — ~30% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)

0.1% CapEx / Revenue (Low-CapEx Asset-Light)

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