debt_leverage_profile
Net debt/EBITDA ~3.5x; 20% rate rise increases annual interest expense ~BRL 150-200M, compressing net margin by ~2-3pp
Inferred
Agent_Inference
interest_rate_sensitivity
High sensitivity; ~70% of debt indexed to CDI/IPCA; 20% rate spike raises cost of debt ~180bps, eroding coverage ratios materially
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geopolitical_supply_exposure
High intensity; European gas dependency on Russia exposed structural energy security vulnerabilities.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
supply_chain_dependency
1) Brazilian grid equipment imports via Asia-Pacific shipping lanes; 2) Transformer/conductor supply concentrated in São Paulo industrial corridor
Inferred
Agent_Inference
international_expansion_readiness
COELBA operates exclusively in Brazil (Bahia state); zero international revenue exposure; sovereign currency devaluation risk is purely domestic BRL
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geographic_footprint
100% domestic Brazil operations; single-state (Bahia) concession; no multi-currency revenue streams; BRL depreciation affects import costs only
Inferred
Agent_Inference
commodity_exposure_profile
High intensity; commodities: Natural Gas, Coal, Uranium, Crude Oil, Copper (grid), Lithium (storage); geopolitical: European gas dependency on Russia exposed structural energy security vulnerabilities.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
vendor_lock_dependency_score
Moderate; Neoenergia/Iberdrola group procurement provides some leverage; no single vendor exceeds 30% but transformer suppliers are oligopolistic
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_primary
Regulated utility; minimal cloud infrastructure dependency; core operations run on legacy SCADA/OT systems with low hyperscaler exposure
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_secondary
Billing and CRM systems partially cloud-hosted; 30-day termination would disrupt customer service but not physical grid operations
Inferred
Agent_Inference
switching_cost_profile
Low API coupling risk; primary systems are proprietary regulatory reporting and ANEEL-mandated platforms, not third-party APIs
Inferred
Agent_Inference
howey_test_risk_index
Very low; revenue from regulated electricity tariffs under ANEEL concession; clearly a utility service, not an investment contract
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_burden_tier
Very High
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
data_sovereignty_risk
LGPD (Brazilian data protection law) applicable; no GDPR/CCPA exposure; compliance risk is moderate given large residential customer database
Inferred
Agent_Inference
antitrust_exposure_flag
Low standalone antitrust risk; natural monopoly regulated by ANEEL within Bahia concession area; pricing set by regulator
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_exposure_profile
Very High burden; regimes: FERC, NERC, EPA, NRC, State PUCs, DOE; Rate-case lag and clean-energy mandates compress returns on regulated asset base.
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
revenue_model_type
~95% recurring; multi-year regulated concession tariffs paid per kWh consumed; minimal transactional or spot revenue
Inferred
Agent_Inference
monetization_vector
Per-kWh consumption tariff under ANEEL-regulated distribution concession; captive residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Bahia
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_architecture
Tariff-controlled by ANEEL periodic reviews; limited pricing power; stress scenario is regulatory review cutting real tariffs 5-8%
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_power_rating
Low standalone pricing power; tariffs set by ANEEL every 4-5 years; company cannot unilaterally raise prices
Inferred
Agent_Inference
target_gross_margin_bracket
Gross margin ~25-35%; regulated distribution spread (Parcel B) constrained; energy purchase costs (Parcel A) are pass-through
Inferred
Agent_Inference
churn_vulnerability_index
Near-zero churn; captive geographic monopoly; free-rider risk minimal but energy theft (inadimplência técnica) runs ~5-8% of distributed energy
Inferred
Agent_Inference
headcount_cost_structure
Sublinear growth; revenue scales with consumption and tariff resets, not headcount; incremental connections require field crews but not proportional office staff
Inferred
Agent_Inference
marginal_cost_of_growth
Marginal cost of new connections is capex-intensive (grid extension) but operating leverage improves at scale; not headcount-linear
Inferred
Agent_Inference
franchise_compliance_risk
Not a franchise model; regulated concession with ANEEL; compliance drift risk is regulatory penalty exposure (~BRL 50-100M/year historically)
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_acquisition_metric
At 10x scale (hypothetical), CAC near zero (monopoly territory); unit economics driven by connection cost ~BRL 2,000-4,000 per new residential unit
Inferred
Agent_Inference
network_effect_present
No demand-side network effects; physical grid has natural monopoly characteristics but value per user does not increase with more users
Inferred
Agent_Inference
asset_efficiency_ratio
AI displacement risk low for grid assets; potential efficiency gains in fault detection and demand forecasting; asset base remains labor/capex intensive
Inferred
Agent_Inference
recession_resistance_tier
Tier 2 recession resilience; electricity is essential but industrial/commercial consumption drops 10-15% in recession, compressing volumes
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_primary
Residential customers (~60% of connections, ~35-40% of revenue); highly fragmented, no single customer concentration risk
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_secondary
Industrial and commercial customers (~5% of connections, ~40-45% of revenue); some concentration in large industrial accounts in Bahia
Inferred
Agent_Inference
characteristic_occupations
["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations"]
High
SOC-2018/GICS-overlay
agent_automatable_labor_share
0.34 (HIL — ~34% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)
Medium
SOC-2018 + agentic-exposure-v1
capital_expenditure_profile
~BRL 1.5-2.0B annual capex; mixed legacy maintenance (~50%) and grid modernization/smart metering (~50%); reallocation toward future-state ongoing
Inferred
Agent_Inference
sec_cik
null
Inferred
Agent_Inference
ticker
COELBA is not publicly listed independently; held under Neoenergia (NEOE3 B3); discount reflects regulatory risk and BRL volatility, not direct commodity supply risk
Inferred
Agent_Inference