debt_leverage_profile
Net debt/EBITDA ~2.5–3.0x; 20% rate rise increases annual interest expense ~BRL 80–120M, compressing net margin ~1.5–2.0pp
Inferred
Agent_Inference
interest_rate_sensitivity
~70% of debt is CDI-linked; 20% CDI increase raises financing costs ~BRL 100M/year, reducing net income by ~8–10%
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geopolitical_supply_exposure
High intensity; European gas dependency on Russia exposed structural energy security vulnerabilities.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
supply_chain_dependency
Brazilian grid equipment imports via Chinese manufacturing hubs; copper/aluminum sourcing via Chile/Peru Andean corridor
Inferred
Agent_Inference
international_expansion_readiness
Coelce operates exclusively in Ceará, Brazil; no international revenue markets; sovereign FX devaluation exposure is nil outside BRL
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geographic_footprint
100% Brazil-domiciled; revenue entirely in BRL; no multi-country exposure; sole FX risk is BRL depreciation against USD-denominated debt
Inferred
Agent_Inference
commodity_exposure_profile
High intensity; commodities: Natural Gas, Coal, Uranium, Crude Oil, Copper (grid), Lithium (storage); geopolitical: European gas dependency on Russia exposed structural energy security vulnerabilities.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
vendor_lock_dependency_score
Enel Group (parent) provides operational, IT, and procurement support; parent dependency exceeds 30% of operational input—moderate lock-in risk
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_primary
Asset-heavy regulated utility; no material cloud infrastructure dependency; grid operations run on own/leased SCADA systems—cloud termination risk is low
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_secondary
Regulated electricity distributor; secondary model is energy commercialization; neither relies critically on hyperscaler cloud continuity
Inferred
Agent_Inference
switching_cost_profile
Minimal API coupling risk; operational systems are SCADA/OMS-based; cloud API dependency is low relative to industrial utilities sector norm
Inferred
Agent_Inference
howey_test_risk_index
Fails Howey Test; revenue model is regulated tariff-based utility service, not an investment contract—Howey risk is not applicable
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_burden_tier
Very High
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
data_sovereignty_risk
Subject to Brazilian LGPD (not GDPR/CCPA); consumer meter and billing data governed by ANEEL regulations; LGPD compliance exposure is moderate
Inferred
Agent_Inference
antitrust_exposure_flag
Legally sanctioned regional monopoly under ANEEL concession in Ceará; antitrust risk is regulatory rate-setting capture risk, not competition law
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_exposure_profile
Very High burden; regimes: FERC, NERC, EPA, NRC, State PUCs, DOE; Rate-case lag and clean-energy mandates compress returns on regulated asset base.
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
revenue_model_type
~95% recurring regulated tariff revenue from captive distribution concession; <5% transactional (connection fees, services)
Inferred
Agent_Inference
monetization_vector
Per-kWh tariff pass-through plus regulated distribution margin (EBIT margin ~8–12%); volume growth and tariff resets are primary value drivers
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_architecture
Tariffs set by ANEEL periodic reviews; company cannot independently reprice—stress scenario is prolonged tariff lag behind inflation/IPCA
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_power_rating
Low independent pricing power; ANEEL-controlled tariff resets every 4–5 years; inflation pass-through partial and lagged—rating: 3/10
Inferred
Agent_Inference
target_gross_margin_bracket
Gross margin ~25–35%; regulated utilities in Brazil typically operate 28–32% gross margin after energy purchase costs
Inferred
Agent_Inference
churn_vulnerability_index
No free-rider leakage; captive regulated monopoly with mandatory connection; churn is near zero—residential customers cannot switch distributor
Inferred
Agent_Inference
headcount_cost_structure
Revenue growth is sublinear to headcount; network densification adds customers without proportional staff increase; OpEx/employee ~BRL 250K
Inferred
Agent_Inference
marginal_cost_of_growth
Marginal growth cost is capex-driven (grid extension ~BRL 400–600K/km); incremental headcount negligible; capital-intensive not labor-intensive scaling
Inferred
Agent_Inference
franchise_compliance_risk
Not a franchise model; concession-based regulated utility; ANEEL concession compliance drift risk is moderate—quality indicators (DEC/FEC) trigger penalties
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_acquisition_metric
At 10x scale (impossible in single-state concession); within concession, customer acquisition cost is near zero—connections are regulatory obligation
Inferred
Agent_Inference
network_effect_present
No demand-side network effects; grid is natural monopoly infrastructure; durability comes from regulatory barriers, not network effects
Inferred
Agent_Inference
asset_efficiency_ratio
AI displacement risk is low-medium; smart meter rollout (AMI) improves asset utilization; AI can optimize loss reduction but won't displace core grid assets
Inferred
Agent_Inference
recession_resistance_tier
Tier 1 recession-resistant; electricity distribution is essential service; volume decline in recession typically <3–5%; tariff revenue largely inelastic
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_primary
Residential customers (~60% of volume); ~3.9 million consumer units across Ceará state—no single customer >1% of revenue
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_secondary
Industrial and commercial customers (~35–40% of volume); large industrial clients in Ceará's textile/food sectors; modest concentration risk
Inferred
Agent_Inference
characteristic_occupations
["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations"]
High
SOC-2018/GICS-overlay
agent_automatable_labor_share
0.34 (HIL — ~34% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)
Medium
SOC-2018 + agentic-exposure-v1
capital_expenditure_profile
Capex ~BRL 700M–1B/year; shifting from legacy grid maintenance toward smart grid, AMI meters, and loss-reduction infrastructure—forward-looking allocation
Inferred
Agent_Inference
sec_cik
null
Inferred
Agent_Inference
ticker
COCE5/COCE3 (B3); trades at ~4–6x EV/EBITDA reflecting regulatory risk, high CDI sensitivity, and Enel divestiture overhang—moderate discount to Brazilian utility peers
Inferred
Agent_Inference