debt_leverage_profile
Debt-to-EBITDA ~5.5x; a 200bps rate rise increases annual interest expense ~$400–500M given ~$28B long-term debt, compressing FFO meaningfully.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
interest_rate_sensitivity
~70% of debt is fixed-rate; floating-rate exposure ~$6–8B means 200bps shock adds ~$120–160M annual interest cost, manageable but credit-rating sensitive.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geopolitical_supply_exposure
High intensity; European gas dependency on Russia exposed structural energy security vulnerabilities.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
supply_chain_dependency
Top chokepoints: (1) Straits of Hormuz for LNG feedstock to Cameron LNG; (2) U.S.-Mexico border crossings for natural gas pipeline infrastructure supply.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
international_expansion_readiness
Primary international markets: Mexico (MXN) and Chile (CLP); MXN devaluation risk is material—IEnova revenues ~20% of consolidated, partly USD-denominated mitigating exposure.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
geographic_footprint
~75% U.S. (California, Texas utilities), ~20% Mexico via IEnova, ~5% Chile/Peru; MXN and CLP devaluation are primary sovereign currency risks.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
commodity_exposure_profile
High intensity; commodities: Natural Gas, Coal, Uranium, Crude Oil, Copper (grid), Lithium (storage); geopolitical: European gas dependency on Russia exposed structural energy security vulnerabilities.
Medium
GICS-commodity-overlay-v1
vendor_lock_dependency_score
No single vendor exceeds 30% of input costs; key dependencies include natural gas pipeline operators and turbine/compressor suppliers (GE, Siemens), each substitutable over time.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_primary
Asset-heavy regulated utility and LNG infrastructure; cloud termination would disrupt billing/operations but core physical asset operations remain functional—moderate 30-day disruption risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
business_model_type_secondary
Secondary model is LNG export tolling (Cameron LNG); cloud dependency for scheduling/logistics is real but not existential; manual fallback protocols exist.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
switching_cost_profile
Minimal API coupling risk; Sempra uses enterprise ERP (SAP) and SCADA systems; vendor lock-in is hardware/OT-centric, not API-driven—low cloud API switching cost exposure.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
howey_test_risk_index
Fails Howey Test; revenue from regulated utility tariffs and LNG tolling fees—not passive investment contracts. Zero securities-law reclassification risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_burden_tier
Very High
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
data_sovereignty_risk
Minimal GDPR exposure (limited EU operations); CCPA applies to California customer data (SoCalGas, SDG&E)—compliance programs mature, fine risk low but not zero.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
antitrust_exposure_flag
Moderate; SoCalGas faces ongoing California PUC scrutiny and DOJ/state AG attention on natural gas market practices; no current major federal antitrust action.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
regulatory_exposure_profile
Very High burden; regimes: FERC, NERC, EPA, NRC, State PUCs, DOE; Rate-case lag and clean-energy mandates compress returns on regulated asset base.
Medium
GICS-regulatory-overlay-v1
revenue_model_type
~85% recurring via regulated utility rate cases and long-term LNG offtake contracts (20-year terms); ~15% transactional/commodity-linked.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
monetization_vector
Primary vectors: regulated utility tariffs (cost-of-service), long-term LNG tolling fees (~$3.50/MMBtu fixed), and infrastructure capacity contracts.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_architecture
Rate-case-regulated pricing (CPUC/FERC); limited direct pricing power—stress scenario is regulatory lag where cost inflation outpaces allowed rate recovery by 12–24 months.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
pricing_power_rating
Moderate-high; regulated returns (~9–10% allowed ROE) provide floor, but political/regulatory risk in California can delay or deny rate increases—rating: 6.5/10.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
target_gross_margin_bracket
Utility gross margin ~35–45%; LNG segment EBITDA margins ~40–50% on tolling basis; consolidated EBITDA margin ~25–30%.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
churn_vulnerability_index
No free-rider problem; natural monopoly utility with captive ratepayers. Churn risk near zero for regulated segments; LNG offtake counterparty default is primary leakage vector.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
headcount_cost_structure
Revenue growth is capital-linear, not headcount-linear; doubling LNG throughput requires minimal incremental staff—sublinear headcount model once infrastructure is built.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
marginal_cost_of_growth
Marginal cost of growth is dominated by capital deployment (~$14B 5-year capex plan), not labor; incremental EBITDA per dollar of capex ~$0.15–0.20 at stabilization.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
franchise_compliance_risk
Not a franchise network; regulated utility model faces compliance drift via evolving CPUC environmental mandates, methane leak rules, and safety standards—ongoing cost creep risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_acquisition_metric
At 10x scale, regulated utility CAC is near zero (captive); LNG offtake customer acquisition cost is high (~$50–100M in BD/legal per contract) but amortized over 20 years.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
network_effect_present
No traditional network effects; pipeline/LNG infrastructure has weak geographic moat—value is regulatory exclusivity and long-term contracts, not user-growth compounding.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
asset_efficiency_ratio
AI displacement risk low for physical utility infrastructure; AI can optimize grid dispatch and predictive maintenance, improving asset utilization 3–7%, not displacing core assets.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
recession_resistance_tier
Tier 1 recession-resistant; electricity and gas are essential services with inelastic demand; regulated revenues largely decoupled from economic cycles.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_primary
Residential and commercial utility ratepayers in California (SoCalGas ~21M customers, SDG&E ~3.7M meters)—highly diversified, no single customer >1% of revenue.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
customer_segment_secondary
LNG offtake customers: large energy companies (Shell, TotalEnergies, Mitsui) under 20-year Cameron LNG contracts—concentrated, but long-term contracted reducing default risk.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
characteristic_occupations
["11-0000 Management Occupations", "13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations", "15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations", "17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations", "23-0000 Legal Occupations", "41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations", "43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations", "47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations", "49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations"]
High
SOC-2018/GICS-overlay
agent_automatable_labor_share
0.34 (HIL — ~34% of characteristic roles agent-automatable)
Medium
SOC-2018 + agentic-exposure-v1
capital_expenditure_profile
Capital reallocation underway: shifting from California gas distribution toward Texas utility (Oncor, ~30% stake) and LNG export infrastructure—legacy gas system still absorbs ~40% of capex.
Inferred
Agent_Inference
sec_cik
1032975
Inferred
Agent_Inference
ticker
SRE trades at ~14–16x forward earnings, modest discount to regulated utility peers; geopolitical LNG supply risk and California regulatory overhang partially reflected but not fully priced.
Inferred
Agent_Inference